The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Anton Vaino, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Sergei Kiriyenko, deputy prime ministers Tatyana Golikova, Alexander Novak and Marat Khusnullin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Maxim Oreshkin, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, and Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina.
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The President’s opening remarks at the meeting on economic issues
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Colleagues,
As usual, I invite you to hold an in-depth discussion on basic trends in the Russian economy and its key sectors, as well as on external markets. We have just now discussed this subject with the Prime Minister, covered its main aspects.
Our regular monitoring and analysis are certainly important, in particular, for adjusting our economic policy priorities, making effective decisions in the field of public finance, successfully implementing our social plans and programmes, developing our cities, and improving the quality of life for our citizens.
I would like to note that economic trends in Russia are broadly in line with our expectations. According to estimates, total GDP growth for the current year will be within one percent. This roughly corresponds to the forecast that formed the basis of budget projections for the current year.
Russian companies and enterprises are operating stably. This is evident from the situation in the labour market, where unemployment is near its all-time lows at 2.3 percent. Wages are growing; they increased by 6.5 percent in real terms in the first six months of this year.
A stable situation in the labour market and growing incomes of the people influence consumer demand. Retail sales increased by 5.4 percent over the first seven months of the year.
Inflation is largely under control. It has been declining gradually since the second quarter of last year. As of September 14, inflation stood at 6.2 percent. That is significantly lower than last year’s level; let me remind you that inflation was in double digits – 10.3 percent – at the end of the first quarter of 2025. In other words, the efforts being made by both the Central Bank and the Government to reduce inflation are clearly proving effective.
Turning to public finance, the federal budget recorded a surplus in August, amounting to 606 billion rubles.
Non-oil and gas revenues – that is, receipts not tied to conditions on the global hydrocarbon market but driven by the dynamics of our domestic market – made a significant contribution to this result. In the first eight months of this year, these revenues grew by more than 18 percent.
At the same time, we are, of course, seeing oil prices rise on global markets. We therefore expect budget revenues from oil and gas to increase in the coming months as well. That, in turn, will allow us to replenish the National Welfare Fund, which, as you know, serves as a kind of safety net for the public finance.
The Government is currently finalising its socioeconomic development forecast for 2027–2029; this will form the basis of the budget – the country’s key financial document for the coming three-year period. Work on the draft budget itself is also proceeding apace and on schedule. Preliminary estimates – which my colleagues will discuss in more detail – point to a federal budget deficit of approximately 2 percent. And this rests on a very conservative estimate for oil prices: as we previously decided and agreed, we are forecasting a price of around US$50 per barrel. That may look ultra-conservative, perhaps, but it is reliable, and the National Welfare Fund will grow as well.
I would like to emphasise: the absolute priority of the federal budget must be meeting the state’s social commitments, ensuring the safety of our citizens, and strengthening Russia’s defence capabilities. It is also important to preserve the federal budget’s role as the primary instrument for achieving our national development goals.
Today, we will discuss certain issues, decisions and approaches in this regard. Let us get to work. I give the floor to Mr Reshetnikov. Please, go ahead.
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