The elected president of Colombia,Abelardo de la Espriellawill take office next Friday (7), marking the return of the extreme right to the country's government, ending a left-wing cycle with Gustavo Petro. Despite the positive approval of Petro's management and advances in social program improvements and labor reform, US interference ultimately shaped the process.
One of the main points favoring this return is Colombia's urban violence scenario, even more so considering the history of the 1990s, when the country was mired in an almost insoluble dispute involving drug trafficking.
On the podcastThe Stranger, geopolitical analyst Miguel Stédile assesses that Donald Trump's track record of actionsis significant.In all electoral processes and diplomatic relations in Latin America, it is evident that the Colombian scenario has been influenced by the United States.
"The fingerprints are very clear there. Not only in material and political aid, but also in the figure of Espriella, who is a person that almost emerges from nowhere. He was not among the favorites a year ago, two years ago, when he started repeating the Trumpist playbook, a synthesis between Bukele, Milei, and Trump. It's the histrionic thing, but it's the security speech," he assesses.
Stédile argues that the entire context and recent moves by Trump indicate that the Brazilian scenario will be one of increasing tension. "I believe the presence of the United States is intoxicating within this candidacy, in the evident actions and others that may take several years to uncover how much Colombia has been interfered with. And it certainly influenced the final result of these elections," he points out.
One of the pillars of this new external relationship is what is known as "Donald's Doctrine," which radically changes how the United States negotiates influence in Latin America, adopting a tactic based more on imposition than financial contribution.
As Miguel Stédile explains, Trump "is not putting any carrot in front of the horse, he is not promising progress. He is simply saying: 'You either submit or it's the Baton,'" he mentions. The term refers to a policy of submission through force. Washington's support is almost exclusively restricted to public security, focusing on criminalization and repression. This model of "baton in exchange for support" paves the way for illegal paths to military interventions under the pretext of combating narcoterrorism, as seen in Venezuela on January 3rd.
For Colombia under Espriella, this means a full embrace of the Americas Shield, increasing the risk of civil violence exploding and reversing previous peace advances. "It's an issue that also needs to be addressed. I believe Espriella indeed won with a very small electoral margin. This gives no sign of tranquility. We know he has a highly unpopular program, meaning 50% of the population disagrees with him. The ballots said so. It's likely he will come in with impactful measures. I'd say there's every scenario for us to have a situation very similar to what we saw recently in Bolivia, with protests and mobilizations," he assesses.
Check out the full podcast at the link below:
To listen and watch
The podcastThe ForeignerIt airs weekly on Wednesdays at 3 p.m., available on the Brazil of Fact channelsBrazil of Fact.