ThePresident Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)leads the presidential race with 39% of the voting intentions in the simulated first-round scenario, according to a Quaest institute survey released this Monday (28). Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is in second place, with 34%.
Given that the survey's margin of error is two percentage points, Lula's five-percentage-point advantage puts him ahead, outside the margin of error.
The survey's field period coincided with the adjustment of Bolsa Família and the release ofProvisional measure by the federal government prohibiting virtual betting platforms (bets) in the country.
In comparison with theprevious survey by the same institute, published on September 21stLula fluctuated two points up, from 37% to 39%, while Flávio Bolsonaro varied one point positively, from 33% to 34%
Following the stimulated voting intention, Augusto Cury (Avante) and the Governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), both with 4% appear. The founder of the Missão movement, Renan Santos, registers 3%, and the Governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), sums 1%.
The candidates Clariana Barão (DC), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Hertz Dias (PSTU), Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB), Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO), Samara Martins (UP) and Veterinário Wilson Grassi (Democrata) did not score. Blank, null, or votes from voters who declared they would not vote add up to 10%, and 5% are undecided.
In the spontaneous survey, in which the names are not presented to the interviewees, Lula registers 31% of the vote intentions, and Flávio Bolsonaro adds up to 27%. Voters who are undecided represent 31%.
Second round and alternative scenarios
In a simulation of a second round between the two leading candidates, Lula andFlávio BolsonaroThey are numerically tied, both with 42% of the vote intentions. Voters who intend to vote blank, null, or abstain account for 13%, while 3% are undecided.
Quaest also tested scenarios of a second round between Lula and other contenders. In a potential confrontation with Ronaldo Caiado, the current president appears with 43% against 40% of the Goias governor.
Against Renan Santos, Lula registers 42% against 39% of the representative of Missão. In the race with Augusto Cury, the candidate for re-election reaches 42% against 33% of the writer. Already against Romeu Zema, Lula sums up 46% of the vote intentions, while the Minas Gerais governor reaches 30%.
Other segments
The survey gauged the approval of the federal government. The disapproval of the Lula government fluctuated from 50% to 49%, while the approval varied from 44% to 46%. In the overall assessment, 41% consider the management negative, 34% classify it as positive, and 23% evaluate it as regular.
The survey indicates that Lula's growth occurred mainly among female voters, increasing from 37% to 40%, while Flávio fell from 32% to 29%; among voters with a family income of up to two minimum wages, Lula rose from 49% to 52%, and Flávio remained at 23%; andamong Bolsa Família beneficiaries, for which Lula registers 53% against 21% of Flávio.
The rejection rate indicates that 56% of respondents state that they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, and 54% state that they would not vote for Lula.
The Quaest survey was commissioned by theTV Globoand the newspaperO GloboThe institute surveyed 2,004 voters in person between September 24 and 27. The survey has a 95% confidence level and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-06520/2026.