The president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), appears with39% of voting intentionsagainst 34% of his main opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), in the first round of the elections, according to a Quaest survey released this Monday (28). In the second round, both appear with 42%, therefore, numerically tied.
AtConnection BdF, fromRádio Brasil de FatoMara Telles, president of the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers (Abrapel) and professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), economic issues are the ones that have the most influence. "People vote based on what they perceive, not necessarily on what happens and what the numbers show," she says.
According to Telles, Lula's campaign managed to capture this in the final stretch, announcing economic and social measures such as Desenrola 3.0 and the adjustment of Bolsa Família, and focusing on the female electorate. "It increased the fear among women that Flávio Bolsonaro would win. This effect on thewomenWith Lula, there is a significant increase in this segment. There is a 11 percentage point difference between the candidates in this segment,” he highlights.
The analyst also considers that the ban on bets in Brazil, announced by the Lula government last Friday (25th), has been a success. "The measure is approved by both men and women," she summarizes. Another point that has strengthened Lula in the electoral race is the controversy surroundingOur Lady of Aparecida"This has damaged Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, as it has captured an electorate that even Lula's campaign, mistakenly, had not observed, namely Catholics. And also the statement by the CNBB defending democracy and sovereignty," he assesses. "Yesterday [Sunday], Flávio declared himself evangelical; today he parades with a saint. So the situation is only getting more complicated in the campaign and in the minds of voters. The saint has transformed Flávio Bolsonaro from evangelical to Catholic in less than 24 hours," he ironically.
Regarding the reduction in the number of undecided voters and how this relates to Flávio and Lula's performance, Mara Telles points out that this is an expected and natural movement, as the campaign is about to begin and people start paying more attention. "This does not mean that this undecided voter will decide. It would be important for research institutes to show more clearly what the profile of this voter is," she observes.
To listen and watch
During the election period, until October 1st, the newspaperConexão BdFwill be broadcast in two editions, Monday to Friday: the first from 12:25 to 14:00, and the second, without changes, from 17:00, onRádio Brasil de Fato98.9 FM in Greater São Paulo, with simultaneous broadcast also onYouTube do Brasil de Fato.