The Real Time Big Data survey, released on Monday (28th), maintains the technical tie between Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) and former Recife mayor João Campos (PSB). There was a slight "shift" compared to the survey released 10 days earlier: the PSB candidate had another small positive fluctuation, of just one percentage point, reaching 45%, maintaining the numerical lead over the current governor, who remains at the same 43% in four surveys, over a period of one and a half months. Campos' vote intentions are not enough to end the race in the first round.
When the 4% of blank and null votes and the 3% of undecided voters are eliminated, the 45% of mentions for João Campos (PSB) become 48% of valid votes. Similarly, the 43% of Raquel Lyra (PSD) become 46% of valid votes. Ivan Moraes (Psol) and Renan Hallais (Missão) are tied in third place, with 2% each. The remaining candidates – Camila Falcão (UP), Guilherme Fonseca (PSTU) and Victor Assis (PCO) – together account for 1%. In a simulated second round, Campos and Lyra only gain 3 percentage points out of the 12 available: João reaches 46% (51% of the valid ones) and Raquel reaches 45% (49% of the valid ones). The remaining voters are divided between 5% undecided and 4% of blank and null votes.
The Real Time Big Data survey, commissioned by TV Record, interviewed 1,600 Pernambuco voters between September 23rd and 26th. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey has registration PE-06087/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
Spontaneous shows three groups of voters
Before the candidates are presented, the survey asks about their spontaneous preference. 30% declare voting for João Campos (PSB), another 30% for Raquel Lyra (PSD), and 29% are undecided or do not know, in addition to 3% who mention other candidates and 8% who declare blank or null votes. The numbers suggest that, just one week before the election, a large portion of the electorate still does not know who will receive their vote for governor, which may reflect a low level of engagement with the candidate and/or with the current electoral process.
Preferences
Repeating what other surveys show, candidate Raquel Lyra (PSD) has an advantage among male voters: 43% choose Lyra, while 39% prefer Campos. Among women, João Campos (PSB) leads: 50% choose the former mayor, while 43% opt for the governor. In the geographical regions of Pernambuco, Campos wins in Recife by 23 points (57% x 34%) and in the metropolitan region by 10 points (47% x 37%), while Lyra surpasses the opponent in the Zona da Mata by 4 points (46 x 42%), in the Sertão by 7 points (50% x 43%), in the Agreste by 10 points (49% x 39%) and in the Sertão do São Francisco by 21 points (60% x 39%).
Rejection
The two main contenders are technically tied in rejection indices as well. When asked which candidates they would not vote for, the current governor Raquel Lyra is mentioned by 42% of respondents, while the former mayor João Campos is mentioned by 39%. The list continues with Renan Hallais (34%), Ivan Moraes (34%) and the other candidates Camila Falcão, Guilherme Fonseca and Victor Assis (22% rejection each).
Who are the blank, null, and undecided votes?
Among the interviewed men, 6% declared blank or null votes, while 5% said they were undecided. Among women, these percentages are much smaller: 2% and 1% respectively. They are more decisive and have chosen their candidates. By age group, voters over 60 are those with the highest rate of undecided voters (7%) and blank or null votes (8%). Adults aged 35 to 59 are the most decisive, with only 2% blank/null and 2% undecided, almost the same percentage as young people aged 18 to 34 (3% undecided and 3% blank and null).
By income, voters with monthly income above R$ 8,1 thousand are those who most declare blank and null votes (8% of them), as well as 3% undecided. Those with income up to R$ 3,2 thousand monthly are the group with the highest percentage of undecided voters (4%), as well as 3% declaring blank or null votes. Those voters with income between R$ 3,3 thousand and R$ 8 thousand are the most decisive, with 3% blank and null votes and 2% undecided.
By region, the most undecided are the voters in the Metropolitan region (4%), Zona da Mata (4%), Agreste (4%) and Sertão do São Francisco (4%), while the most defined are the residents in Sertão (2%) and Recife (1%). And the regions with the most voters inclined to blank or null votes are the residents in Agreste (5%), Zona da Mata (5%), Metropolitan (5%) and São Francisco (4%), again Recife (2%) and Sertão (2%) with the lowest indices of invalid votes.