The Quaest survey, released this Tuesday (29th), reaffirms the advantage of candidates from the Frente Popular in the race for the two Senate seats. Leading from the beginning of the surveys, former Deputy Marília Arraes (PDT) appears with 19% of voting intentions, having positively oscillated (+1) compared to the survey released a week earlier. She is in a technical tie with Senator Humberto Costa (PT), who now appears with 17%, after a positive oscillation (+3) within the margin of error. In third place is Mendonça Filho (PL), with the same 10% as a week ago.
It should be noted that the Quaest surveys are the only ones that place Marília (advantage of +9 points) and Humberto (+7) with a lead over Mendonça Filho that exceeds the margin of error by three percentage points. The most recent Datafolha survey maintains all three in a technical tie, with Marília (+6) and Humberto (+4) having a numerical advantage over Mendonça. For Real Time Big Data, the scenario is even more intense, with the PDT candidate having a numerical advantage (+5), but the PT candidate is meticulously tied with the Bolsonaro supporter (both with 20%).
On average, across the three surveys, Marília (PDT) leads Mendonça (PL) by 6 or 7 percentage points, while Humberto would be technically tied with his opponent, but with a numerical advantage of 3 or 4 points.
In fourth place, Quaest brings Deputy Eduardo da Fonte (PP), with 7% (-1) of voting intentions. Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) also oscillated negatively (-1), now with 3%. Carlos Sant’ana (Novo) and Pastor Gilvan Costa (Dem) appear with 1% each. Candidates Paulo Rubem Santiago (Rede) and Samuel Timóteo (UP), who marked 1% in the previous survey, did not score this time. Gorett Bitu (UP), Mariano Macedo (PSTU), and Maílson Neto (PCO) were also not mentioned. Undecided voters account for 23% (+2), while blank and null votes are 19% (-2).
Even though these were oscillations within the margin of error, in one week, votes shifted from candidates identified with the progressive field — Túlio Gadêlha, Paulo Rubem, and Samuel Timóteo lost 1 point each — and from a member of the "centrão", Eduardo da Fonte (-1), migrating to the PDT candidate Marília Arraes (+1) and to the PT candidate Humberto Costa (+3).
Lula gains ground in Pernambuco
When asked about the presidential race, Pernambuco voters reaffirmed their preference for the reelection of their own candidate, Lula da Silva (PT), who gained four points in a week and now has 58% of the vote intentions in the state. Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) fluctuated negatively (-1) and now has 20%. Augusto Cury (Avante) also fluctuated negatively (-2) and now has 3%. Renan Santos (Missão) has 2% and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) has 1%. Undecided voters are 11% (+1), while blank and null votes are 5% (-2).
The survey did not include the candidates Samara Martins (UP), Hertz Dias (PSTU), Edmilson Costa (PCB), Rui Pimenta (PCO), Zema (Novo), Clariana Barão (DC), Wilson Grassi (Dem) and Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB).
The Quaest surveys were commissioned by Rede Globo and conducted interviews with 1,302 Pernambuco voters between September 25 and 28. With a 95% confidence level, the margin of error is three percentage points. The survey on the Senate and the Government of Pernambuco has registration PE-00324/2026 in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), while the presidential survey has registration BR-08289/2026.