A reportagem published byPoder360this Monday (28) brought together 16 actions ofthe Lula governmentand stated that they amount to R$ 411.2 billion in 2026. The survey was presented in the title as a "package of benefits" seven days before the elections, and, in detail, associated with the attempt by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to win a fourth term. In the opening, the publication states that Lula "injected" the value into social actions and sought to "boost his" electoral chances.
Eight of the 16 items, however, refer to policies launched, resumed, or approved before 2026. The Secretariat of Social Communication of the Presidency (Secom), heard byPoder360, stated that eight of the 16 items had been launched before the election year. These include programs created in 2024 and others announced in 2025, including resources for this year that were already foreseen when they were launched.
In the body of the report,Poder360explains that he considers measures "announced or expanded" by the government in 2026, including increased benefits, reduced taxes, credit provision, and resources allocated to programs, as "positive" measures.
In the response published by the company itself,Power360The Secom classified all these initiatives as "methodologically unsustainable" and contested their association with the elections. The secretariat highlighted, among other points, the existence of previous programs and the difference between allocated credit and already disbursed funds.
Previous policies are being reviewed.
The largest value in the survey, R$ 140 billion, is associated withNova Indústria Brasil (NIB)The industrial policy was launched in January 2024. What happened this year was a new offer of resources for investment, mainly through the National Bank of Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and Finep.
It is also 2024 thatPé-de-Meia,Financial incentive program for public high school students. The law that established the savings was enacted in January of that year. The R$ 11.5 billion accounted for in the survey refers to the resources allocated to continue the policy in 2026.
There are cases in which the value used in the list had already been announced in the previous year. The Reforma Casa Brasil, totaling R$ 40 billion, was presented in October 2025 with exactly that volume of credit: R$ 30 billion from the Social Fund and R$ 10 billion from a specific line of Caixa. The operation began in November of that year.
The same applies to Gás do Povo. The program was launched in September 2025, and at that time, the government anticipated R$ 3.57 billion for that year and R$ 5.1 billion for 2026, which appears fully in the account ofPoder360.
Luz do Povo also began in 2025. The free consumption of the energy bill for low-income families that use up to 80 kWh per month came into effect in July of that year, although new stages of the policy have reached 2026.
Another measure placed on the agenda this year was the expansion of the exemption fromIncome Tax for those who earn up to R$ 5,000 per monthThe change came into effect in January 2026, but was approved by the National Congress and established by Law 15.270, sanctioned on November 26, 2025.
In My Home, My Life, the policy in effect was resumed by the government in 2023. In April of this year, there was a new contribution from the Social Fund. Caixa officially informed of the expansion of R$ 20 billion, while the Poder360 survey attributes R$ 24.8 billion to the expansion of the program.
The Sovereign Brazil Plan was created in August 2025 to support companies affected by the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products. The policy was resumed and expanded in 2026, in the face of the continuity of trade restrictions and international instability.
Continuity of policies and responses to crises
Among other items, the adjustment to Bolsa Família, calculated by Poder360 at R$ 5.8 billion, does not correspond to the creation of a new benefit. The current government updated the values by 15.04% in September, bringing the minimum per family from R$ 600 to R$ 691 from October. This was the first inflation adjustment since the resumption of the current model of the program, in 2023.
The new Desenrola Brasil, launched in May through Provisional Measure 1.355, also inaugurated a different modality, but continues a debt renegotiation policy created in the first year of the current mandate. The original Desenrola Brasil was established in 2023.
A similar situation occurs in the rural sector. The new rural debt renegotiation announced for 2026 follows Desenrola Rural, established in February 2025 to allow family farmers and cooperatives to renegotiate debts and regain access to credit.
Brazil Against Organized Crime has a name, structure, and resources announced this year, but preceded by a federal strategy created in October 2023. The National Program to Combat Organized Crime (Enfoc) already had the objectives of integrating security forces, strengthening investigations and intelligence, and dismantling organized crime organizations.
In the FGTS, thePoder360includes BRL 7 billion related to the annual withdrawal. The modality has existed since 2020. In 2026, the government adopted an exceptional release of values that continued to be blocked for workers who had made early withdrawals. The initial estimate was exceeded: according to FGTS, BRL 8.2 billion were released in May and June in this stage. The money did not come from the Union's budget, but from the workers' own accounts.
The first phase of Move Brazil began operating on December 30, 2025, with credit for renewing the truck fleet. The program was expanded this year, when it gained new lines and also included buses, taxi drivers, ride-hailing drivers, and other groups.
Subsidies for diesel and gasoline were emergency measures in 2026. The first Provisional Measure to subsidize diesel was issued on March 12. In May, the government also authorized subsidies for gasoline. The Provisional Measure itself establishes that the initiative had the objective of mitigating the shock in the international energy market caused by the war between Israel and the United States against Iran.
According to the Ministry of Planning, the price of the Brent barrel had fallen below US$70 before the start of the war on February 28, to more than US$100 in May. The conflict between the United States and Iran, under the government of Donald Trump, continued in September and put pressure on fuel prices.
The other external front was commercial. In July, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on some Brazilian products, which was added to a subsequent surcharge of 12.5% in some cases. The Sovereign Brazil, which already existed since 2025, was expanded to provide credit and support to companies affected by these measures and other international instabilities.
Credit, tax exemption, and FGTS in the same amount
The R$411.2 billion presented byPoder360Also do not amount to R$ 411.2 billion in federal government spending. The criteria itself, as disclosed by the publication, allows for the aggregation of distinct financial instruments in the same account.
For example, in Nova Indústria Brasil and Reforma Casa Brasil, a significant portion of the values corresponds to financing. In the latter case, this amounts to R$ 40 billion in credit, including R$ 10 billion originating from the Brazilian Savings and Loan System (SBPE) operated by Caixa.
The same applies to Move Brasil. Of the R$ 55.2 billion attributed to the program, up to R$ 30 billion corresponds only to the credit line for taxi drivers and app drivers to finance new vehicles. Access to the money still depends on credit analysis by financial institutions.
In the Brasil Against Organized Crime program, the difference is even more explicit: of the approximately R$ 11 billion accounted for, R$ 1.065 billion corresponds to direct resources and R$ 10 billion to a financing line for states and municipalities, operated by the BNDES.
Novo Desenrola also brings together distinct sources. The provisional measure that established the program authorized transfers to the Guarantee Fund for Operations (FGO) and allowed workers to use funds from their own FGTS accounts to amortize or pay off renegotiated debts.
The exemption from Income Tax, in turn, has an impact on the way revenue is reduced, while the extraordinary release of FGTS mobilizes workers' assets. The adjustment to Bolsa Família, on the other hand, represents a direct increase in the benefit expenditure.