The latest round of the voting intention survey in Pernambuco, conducted by the Quaest Institute, was released on Tuesday evening (29th). With only a week since the previous edition, the survey shows only fluctuations within a 3% margin of error, but it reaffirms trends observed in previous surveys: candidate João Campos (PSB) continues to gain ground in the final stretch and is tied with Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD), who has been fluctuating between 41% and 44% for three months. In this edition, both appear with 42%.
Despite the technical tie not being new, this is the first time that Quaest has shown a numerical tie. Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) had consistently been ahead in the surveys conducted in July (+6 points above Campos) and August (+8), but the distance narrowed over September, and in the last week of the first round, she is numerically tied (42%) with João Campos (PSB). Ivan Moraes (Psol) is in third place, with the same 1% maintained since the first survey.
Candidate Renan Hallais (Missão), who had 1%, did not score this time. Neither did candidates Camila Falcão (UP), Guilherme Fonseca (PSTU) and Victor Assis (PCO). The undecided are 10% (-2), while 5% (-1) declare blank or null votes. The Quaest survey was commissioned by Rede Globo and conducted interviews with 1,302 Pernambucan voters between September 25th and 28th. With a 95% confidence level, the margin of error is 3% plus or minus. The survey has registration PE-00324/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
Where did the votes come from?
Despite the fluctuations being within the margin of error, we have a decline of three points in the sum of blank, null and undecided votes (from 18% to 15%), as well as a loss of one percentage point for Renan Hallais (Missão). Raquel Lyra (PSD) gained one point, while João Campos (PSB) gained three points.
In the spontaneous survey, when candidate names are not presented, the governor has a numerical advantage, despite still being tied within the margin of error: she is remembered by 35% of the interviewed voters, while the name of the former Recife mayor is cited by 30% as the chosen candidate. Ivan Moraes (Psol) has 1%.
1% is very important
For three months, the former Recife councilor Ivan Moraes (Psol) has maintained the same 1% (or 1.2% of valid votes) in Quaest surveys. He may be the key to a state-wide second round, as Lyra and Campos currently have 49.4% of valid votes, according to Quaest. He brought this scenario to the debate broadcast on TV Globo on Tuesday evening (29th), stating that if his electorate is the deciding factor in a possible second round, both the governor and the former mayor would need to incorporate part of their agendas into their respective government plans.
Second round
In the second round scenario between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), the opponents are tied again, now with 44% of voting intentions. It is worth noting that in one week, Campos has fluctuated positively (+3) slightly more than Lyra (+1). There are still 7% (-3) undecided voters, who are continuing to decrease, in addition to 5% (-1) who are declaring their vote blank or null.
Who is Lula's candidate?
Campos's growth is mainly due to the release of Raquel Lyra's (PSD) statements in 2025, about performing an unwanted ligation on a patient who would have seven children. "She does it without her knowing," said the governor to a hospital director in Garanhuns (PE). The video particularly impacted the voting intentions of women, who had already shown a greater preference for João Campos (PSB) and expanded his advantage in this segment.
However, another possible factor for the growth of the former mayor is his association with President Lula (PT), who visited Recife last Friday (25), held a public rally and asked for votes for Campos in front of 80,000 people. The images of the rally have been widely used by the PSB candidate, as the President of the Republic has 58% of the voting intentions in Pernambuco, and there is still a large percentage of Pernambuco residents who do not know who Lula supports in the state.
According to the Quaest poll on Tuesday (29), there is a growth of seven percentage points (from 54% to 61%) in the index of voters who say that João Campos is Lula's candidate. The number of voters who say they don't know remains high, at 32% (-6), while 6% believe that the PT supports Raquel Lyra and 1% say that the president does not support any candidate.
When asked about the Pernambuco candidate supported by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), 69% (-2) say they don't know and 25% (+1) say that Raquel Lyra is the favorite of the far-right candidate. There are also 5% (+2) who consider that no Pernambuco candidate is supported by Bolsonaro, while 1% (-2) believe that João Campos counts on the support of the senator.
Knows and trusts
The candidate Raquel Lyra (PSD) is known to 95% of Pernambuco residents, who are divided between 57% (-3) who consider her a voting option and 38% (+4) who, knowing her, would not vote for her. There are also 5% (-1) who say they do not know her.
João Campos is known to 93% of Pernambuco residents, reaching the same 57% (+3) who consider him a voting option and 36% (-2) who do not consider voting for him. There are also 7% (-1) who say they do not know him.
Ivan Moraes (Psol) and Renan Hallais (Missão) are both unknown to 81% of voters. But Ivan saw a fluctuation in his numbers: a reduction in the unknown (-2) and growth (+2) of those who consider him a voting option, now at 6% of the electorate, against 13% who know him and would not vote for him. As for Renan, the index of unknown remained, and the fluctuation only occurred with the migration of 2 points from those who know and would vote (now 4%) to the group who know and would not vote (now 15%).