If Brazil were the Jequitinhonha Valley, Lula would have won already on October 4th. On the region's map, almost nothing escaped the PT's red: Lula won in 52 out of 54 municipalities in the Valley. The exceptions were Capelinha and Angelândia, in the Capelinha microregion, the only ones that went for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
In the vote tally, the gap was even greater: for every two votes for the PL candidate, Lula received nearly four - 240,411 against 129,644 valid votes. The data is from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), consolidated on October 5th.
The lead was repeated in all five microregions of the region - from Almenara to Pedra Azul, through Araçuaí, Diamantina, and even Capelinha, the only one where the PL won municipalities individually. In all of them, Lula's share was between 60% and 68% of valid votes.
The dominance was also evident in the pole cities: 4 to 1. Almenara, Araçuaí, Diamantina, and Pedra Azul chose Lula; only Capelinha, by a narrow margin, preferred Flávio.
Outside the Valley, the scenario was different. Flávio Bolsonaro finished the first round ahead in Brazil and also in Minas Gerais. In the Jequitinhonha Valley, the opposite happened: Lula won, and by a wide margin.
Lula's lead in the region was almost 30 percentage points - equivalent to six times Flávio's advantage in the state (4.91 points) and 16 times his advantage in the country (1.87 point). If the whole of Brazil had voted like the Valley, the election would have ended in the first round.
Governor: the same electorate, different choice
If, for President, the Valley was painted in one color, for Governor the story changed. In the ten largest cities in the region, the electorate that elected Lula gave Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans) the victory in nine. Only Jequitinhonha went for Patrus Ananias (PT): 49.42% against 38.34% - the only one where the petist won.
The average of Cleitinho in the ten cities was 55.11%, with the highest rates in Minas Novas (71.26%), Capelinha (67.27%), and Itamarandiba (66.99%). In the larger cities, however, the competition was tighter: in Almenara, 48.09% against 44.10%; in Diamantina, 44.47% against 42.25%.
The result shows the divided vote by position: cities that gave a majority to Lula for president gave a majority to Cleitinho for governor — as if the voter in the Valley clearly separated the two ballots.
Senate: fragmented competition and the same exception.
If for governor the Valley concentrated the vote, for the Senate the choice spread out. In the ten largest cities, Marília Campos (PT) won in seven. Carlos Viana (PSD) took two — Novo Cruzeiro and Pedra Azul —, and Domingos Sávio (PL) won in only one: Capelinha.
Curiously, Áurea Carolina (PSOL) had no wins, but was the second-place candidate in four cities — Diamantina, Almenara, Araçuaí, and Jequitinhonha —, accumulating over 41,000 votes in the sample.
The local score reverses the state. The candidate with the most votes in Minas for the Senate, Domingos Sávio (24.21%), was precisely the one who won the least in the Valley — only in Capelinha. Marília Campos was also elected; Carlos Viana and Áurea Carolina were left out.
The progressive field elected 22 state deputies in the ALMG.
The Valley also helped shape the new Legislative Assembly of Minas. The progressive bench — PT, Psol, PSB, PDT, PV, and Rede — elected 22 deputies, almost a third of the 77 seats in the House.
In the Valley, the candidates from the bloc received 25,220 votes in the five pole cities, and the voting was almost entirely petist: PT accounted for over 96% of the sample.
Two names led the pack. Dr. Jean Freire (PT) was the most progressive candidate voted for in Almenara, Araçuaí, and Pedra Azul, with 11,660 votes in all five cities. Beatriz Cerqueira (PT) led in Diamantina and Capelinha—and, in addition to being the most voted candidate from the bloc in the region, she was the top progressive deputy in Minas, with 328,402 votes.
The local result reflects the state-level one: with 15 elected representatives, PT will have the second-largest bench in ALMG, behind PL (21). PSB (2), PV (2), PSOL (1), PDT (1), and Rede (1) complete the bloc.
If the decision depended on the Valley
If the decision depended on the Valley, the election would be decided before the second round. The region gave Lula 64.97% of valid votes, a lead of nearly 30 points. However, Brazil remains divided: Flávio Bolsonaro finished the first round in the lead, with 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula—the smallest difference between the top two candidates in the history of presidential elections, according to TSE.
The tight race followed a record number of absences: 21.08% of voters did not cast their ballots in the first round, the highest abstention rate since 1998. In Minas Gerais, the figure was even higher: 22.82%.
Absenteeism
