Investing in conventional weapons better than developing nuclear program of one's own – expert

Jim Stokes, a GLOBSEC expert and former NATO Director of Nuclear Policy (2023–2025), expressed this view in an interview with Ukrinform.

"Ukraine joining NATO. That is the most credible option. NATO's deterrence has worked for more than 77 years because no state has ever attacked the Alliance. I do not usually use the word 'guarantee,' but there are benefits to being covered by extended nuclear deterrence from the United States, the United Kingdom and France," the expert said.

At the same time, he cautioned against expecting a nuclear program of one's own to provide absolute protection. Stokes, who headed the Staff Group of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, outlined his arguments.

According to him, the decision to develop an independent nuclear capability cannot be taken lightly, as no one wants further proliferation of nuclear weapons, which are currently possessed by only a limited number of states. Political commitments, financial costs, the technical expertise and technology required, and the time and money needed to produce a certain number of nuclear weapons must all be taken into account. In addition, a country would need delivery systems, a doctrine, command-and-control procedures, and many other supporting capabilities.

"All of this requires a great deal of effort. I say this as someone who worked for a long time on countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction," Stokes said.

He also cited North Korea as an example of a country that has become a nuclear power. However, the expert noted, North Korea is a pariah state. Ukraine, or any other country, therefore needs to consider whether it wants to become a pariah and potentially face sanctions by withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. "Would that really provide the security they seek?" he said.

At the same time, Stokes acknowledged that he understood those who argue that, from a national security perspective, nuclear weapons offer the ultimate guarantee of national security and sovereignty.

The expert therefore believes it would be better to devote time, money and effort to conventional defense.

"Whether you can be part of a nuclear alliance and reinforce that arrangement, as in NATO or another alliance, or whether there are other ways to obtain some form of security guarantee. There seem to be better options that would be available rather than pursuing a national nuclear weapons program," Stokes concluded.

As Ukrinform reported, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine should have received a "security umbrella." He described the guarantees the country received at the time as "an unfair game and a major mistake."