President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains 36% of voting intentions in the presidential race, ahead of his main opponent,Flávio Bolsonaro (PL),Which reaches 31%, in the first round, according to theResearch study publishedOn this Monday (14), in a hypothetical second round, Lula and Flávio are technically tied, with 40% and 42% respectively.
The survey was conducted between September 10th and 13th, and thus already had some impact regarding the news involving the lifting of confidentiality for part of the investigation of theMaster BankThis implicates Flávio and other Bolsonaro supporters, such as federal deputy Mário Frias (PL-SP), as well as various movements within the Supreme Federal Court (STF).
In an interview withConnection BdF, fromRadio Brazil de Fato, political scientist Tathiana Chicarino, a professor at the Foundation School of Sociology and Politics of São Paulo (FESPSP), notes, however, that the news coverage had little influence on the poll numbers, even showing "resilience" in the candidacy of the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. "His voters don't change their minds about their vote. It's an election that has been quite competitive, just as it was in 2022," she compares.
Some of the factors pointed out by the analyst to explain this highly contested race are: the change in the configuration of governments in Latin America, with the rise of the far right under the influence of US President Donald Trump; the fact that the Brazilian far right has not lost ground after the imprisonment of its main leader, Jair Bolsonaro; the electoral process for those seeking reelection has been particularly challenging due to economic factors and the influence of social media platforms. "There is a consolidation of political and electoral behavior," she sums up.
Tathiana Chicarino believes that the electoral process has been contaminated by the decisions of Minister André Mendonça involving the "biggest corruption scandal." And she continues, this is not about favoring Flávio Bolsonaro, but rather that there is a distraction for the voter. "There are indications of partiality fromMinister André MendonçaRegarding the leaks, but this causality is not so simple to establish", he considers. "Now, one thing that is no longer happening: we are no longer talking about the election campaign. Including this in the debate not only benefits Flávio Bolsonaro due to the investigation itself. But because these political scandals favor candidates with anti-system and anti-institution speeches", he points out.
The far-right knows how to operate this narrative dispute very well, according to Chicarino. "If all democratic institutions are corrupted in this context, the anti-system speech is favored, and that is the far-right", he states. "The challenge is not to be reactive to this speech and be proactive, and to look for who is the presidential candidate involved in corruption scandals", he suggests.
Tathiana Chicarino reinforces the importance, at this moment, of the public debate focusing on the candidacies again. "We have an election happening in a few days. And having access to information about the presidential candidate involved in this [corruption scandal] is very important. And it is important to bring this differentiation between candidates into the public debate. Not everyone received money from Vorcaro", she advocates.
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