While the share of progressive voters in Brazil was devastated after the results of the first round of the elections, the President of the United States,Donald Trump, certainly celebrated, as he has been seeking to interfere in the elections in favor ofFlávio Bolsonaro (PL).
This is not a novelty and certainly not an exclusivity of Brazil, but it stems from a continuous history of US interference in regional political processes, as evidenced in contests in countries such as Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Honduras and Venezuela.
To the political international podcast ofBrasil de Fato, The ForeignerThe geopolitical analyst Miguel Stédile recalls that, in other periods of Brazilian history, there have been direct US interventions, citing the 1964 coup as an example.
"The United States had been preparing since 1961, funding entities, applying diplomatic pressure, sabotaging the João Goulart government, and even executing Operation Brother Sun, sending aircraft carriers, etc. This was not necessary, because the dirty work had already been done beforehand. And similarly now in this election campaign. We don't need to investigate it as if it were something clandestine," he assesses, highlighting Trump's recent public and notorious actions, such as the tariffs, the criminal organizations being framed as terrorist organizations, and the suspension of consular services two days before the first round. "There are a number of digital traces of the Trump government within the Brazilian electoral process," he states.
The correspondent ofBdFin Venezuela, Leonardo Fernandes, discusses how the narrative of combating narcoterrorism was a way to legitimize illegal actions in various countries, with a focus on Venezuela, which was attacked and had its president Nicolás Maduro kidnapped on January 3.
Fernandes explains that, in addition to political and economic pressures, the Trump administration has also used financial resources to implement this strategy.
"Many analysts have called this a form of silent occupation of the United States over Latin American territories. The United States has at least four legal norms that authorize the U.S. government to act in foreign territory to combat what they consider to be terrorist organizations. In Colombia, the first visit by Marco Rubio after the inauguration of the far-right president, Abelardo de la Espriella, this was one of the main topics, and about US$10 million was announced for the construction of an Americas Shield headquarters in the Colombian city of Medellín," he reports.
In the Brazilian context, Miguel Stédile believes that if Flávio is elected, Trump should not invest in military actions, but may maintain, for example, sanctions such as those provided for in the Magnitsky Law against Brazilian authorities considered enemies by the extreme right.
Regarding the rise of the extreme right in Brazil and the fact that speeches pointing to this movement pose a risk to sovereignty and democracy and create space for external interference, Stédile states that none of this matters to the Bolsonaro voter. "The tragedy for us in this election is that, in general, the voter said: 'I know that Flávio is corrupt, I know that Flávio is connected to Vorcaro, that he has no idea, that he is not capable of thinking for himself, and he will be the Trump puppet. But not Lula. Basically, the option that the voter, the right-wing voter, the extreme right-wing voter, made.'"
If Lula wins, the analyst believes that the result may be strongly questioned, especially with the newly elected majority of Congress aligned with Flávio Bolsonaro. "It is part of the extreme right to question the results of the elections," he points out.
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